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From: Resilient Planet Mission 4: Paradise Found (pp: 83)
Analyzing Population Growth

In this activity, students will graph human population over the last two thousand years. They will then analyze the graph in terms of carrying capacity and predict what limiting factors in the environment might limit the human population.

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Analyzing Population Growth

While studying apex predators, Dr. Sala considers the biotic potential of organisms that live in the coral reefs. Studying the biotic potential helps ecologist understand the maximum ceiling to which a population can grow. It is possible for organisms to reach their biotic potential for short periods, but eventually the limiting factors in the ecosystem begin to control and hold the population below the carrying capacity of the environment.

In this activity, you will graph human population over the last two thousand years. You will analyze the graph in terms of carrying capacity and predict what limiting factors in the environment might help control the human population growth.


Materials
  • ruler

Lab Prep
  1. Place the graph paper lengthwise and draw the X- and Y-axis lines.
  2. Along the X-axis, write the years starting with zero and ending with 2000.
  3. Along the Y-axis, space out the numbers 0 to 10. This represents billions of people.
  4. Label the X- and Y-axis with appropriate titles and units. At the top, give your graph a main title.
  5. Using the data from the United Nations Population Study on the Lab 4 Data Sheet, plot the data. Connect the plot points with a line.

Make Observations
  1. Human population is growing exponentially. That means the larger the population gets, the faster it grows. Exponential growth is common among invasive species populations or in species recovering their population after an environmental disturbance like a fire. A graph of exponential population growth is said to be J-shaped. Look at the population growth graph on page 10. How does your graph compare with that one?
  2. Carrying capacity is the largest population that an environment can support, given the abiotic and biotic factors available. Humans have been successful at finding a niche in every biome on the planet. Some scientists feel that humans have not yet reached the environment’s carrying capacity, while others think we have overshot it. Make a list of limiting factors in the environment that might control the population growth of humans.
  3. Look at your graph. What happened to the human population after about 1800? Use a history textbook or go online to research the reasons for the sudden change in population.
  4. Using your graph and the data sheet, determine how many years it took for the human population to reach 1 billion. How many years did it take to reach the next billion? Estimate the years it took until the population reached 6 billion. What year was that? Based on the trend, predict when the population will reach 10 billion.
  5. How have humans managed to sustain such a population growth rate (consider niche, habitats, food webs, and natural sinks)? Do you think humans can sustain this growth rate? Are there signs that the environment may be resisting the population growth?

Extension

How is a human population count conducted? Research and report on methods used by the United States Census Bureau.

Journal Question

Journal Question
Humans have the power to alter their environment and affect the carrying capacity of their ecosystem. How do humans increase or decrease the carrying capacity in their local ecological communities? Explain.

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